A well-managed, bumper crop of sauvignon blanc grapes from this year’s harvest has been tailored to fit forecast wine sales, but the oversupply is impacting values for vineyards across the country.

With most winery vats at near-capacity with sauvignon blanc before the 2025 vintage began, wine companies worked with growers to manage the extent of the oversupply of New Zealand’s market-leading wine variety.

Bayleys Marlborough viticulture specialist Mike Poff says the current downturn is similar in magnitude to 2008-09 when a similar oversupply occurred amid the Global Financial Crisis.

“Anyone without a secure supply contract or lease agreement would have probably missed out on getting their grapes harvested earlier this season. There was a large number of grapes left on the vine,” he says.

Despite the vintage being great quality, offshore markets are weaker and new tariffs for exports of wine to the United States are contributing to the gloom overhanging the vineyard market.

The weaker market for vineyards is testing the resilience of owners who want to sell.

“We’ve had a few vineyards on the market for the past six to 12 months and some of those vendors have accepted there is a price adjustment, and they have or are now keen to meet the market,” he says.

There is also interest in vineyards for conversion to alternative crops and interest from buyers looking to create lifestyle blocks, though more selective than previous years, this is still underpinning the smaller end of the market.

“Marlborough is renowned for its wine production, but we may see a return to alternative horticultural crops, like cherries and apples. Maybe we will see some buyers converting vineyard land to grow other crops in the future.”

A small number of offshore buyers are also actively looking to invest in land in New Zealand as a secure, stable investment in a time of global uncertainty, he says.

“It is a little easier for them to invest in land in New Zealand after the Overseas Investment Office rules have been amended, and we know of some parties doing due diligence now on vineyard land,” he says.

There has also been an increase in enquiry from the larger investment companies looking to secure more property to add to their portfolios.

Poff says many existing vineyards are maturing so replanting vines is also looming as another costly challenge for owners.

It’s a similar picture in Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne where profitability has diminished significantly for most vineyard owners.

Bayleys Hawke’s Bay rural salesperson Tim Wynne-Lewis says few sales have been completed in the region over the past couple of years.

“That said, we do have two viticulture sales under contract at this point. One is a large-scale vineyard, and the other one is looking like it will be bought and go through a change of land use,” he says.

He is also handling the sale of the renowned Elephant Hill winery, brand and vineyard and says that is attracting significant national and international interest.

Looking ahead, Poff says there are signs of a steadying in export volumes, but there is little expectation of growth in the short to medium term.

Some key markets already have large stockpiles of New Zealand wine and that is adding to the uncertainty around any recovery in prices.